Predicting the Impact of Stem Cell Cures on Healthcare Burden in California

A new independent report says developing stem cell treatments and cures for some of the most common and deadly diseases could produce multi-billion dollar benefits for California in reduced healthcare costs and improved quality and quantity of life.

The report, by researchers at the University of Southern California’s Leonard D. Schaeffer Center for Health Policy & Economics, looked at the value of hypothetical future interventions to reduce or cure cancer, diabetes, stroke and blindness.

Predicting the future is always complicated and uncertain and many groups are looking at the best models to determine the value and economic impact of cell and gene therapy as the first products are just entering the market. This study provides some insights into the potential financial benefits of developing effective stem cell treatments for some of the most intractable diseases affecting California today.

The impact could affect millions of people. In 2018 for Californians over the age of 50:

  • Nearly half were predicted to develop diabetes in their lifetime
  • More than one third will experience a stroke
  • Between 5 and 8 percent will develop either breast, colorectal, lung, or prostate cancer

The report says that a therapy that decreased the incidence of diabetes by 50 percent in Californians over the age of 51 would translate into a gain for the state of $322 billion in social value between now and 2050. Even just reducing diabetes 10% would lead to a gain of $60 billion in social value over the same period.

  • For stroke a 50 percent reduction would generate an estimated $229 billion in social value. A 10 percent reduction would generate $47 billion
  • For breast cancer a 50 percent reduction would generate $56 billion in social value; for colorectal cancer it would be $72 billion; for lung cancer $151 billion; and prostate cancer $53 billion. 

The impact of a cure for any one of those diseases would be enormous. For example, a 51-year-old woman cured of lung cancer could expect to gain a lifetime social value of almost half a million dollars ($467,275). That’s a measure of years of healthy life gained, of years spent enjoying time with family and friends and not wasting away or lying in a hospital bed.

The researchers say: “Though advances in scientific research defy easy predictions, investing in biomedical research is important if we want to reduce the burden of common and costly diseases for individuals, their families, and society. These findings show the value and impact breakthrough treatments could have for California.”

“Put in this context, the CIRM investment would be worthwhile if it increased our chances of success even modestly. Against the billions of dollars in disease burden facing California, the relatively small initial investment is already paying dividends as researchers work to bring new therapies to patients.”

The researchers determined the “social value” using a measure called a quality adjusted life-year (QALY). This is a way of estimating the cost effectiveness and consequences of treating or not treating a disease. For example, one QALY is equivalent to one year of perfect health for an individual. In this study the value of that year was estimated at $150,000. If someone is sick with, say, diabetes, their health would be estimated to be 0.5 QALY or $75,000. So, the better health a person enjoys and the longer they enjoy it the higher QALY score they accumulate. In the case of a disease affecting millions of people in that state or country that can obviously lead to very large QALY scores representing potentially billions of dollars.

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